The Top Five Countries in the 2023 Eurovision Betting
Author:
Roy Brindley
All 37 countries participating in the 67th Eurovision Song Contest have now released their songs for the annual competition. With the running order for the semi-finals also published, bookmakers and fans have a good grip on what they can expect to unfold at the event. It will be staged at the Liverpool Arena during the second week of May.
Mae Muller will represent the UK, singing ‘I Wrote a Song’, at Eurovision 2023. ?GettyImages
The UK, hosting the event on behalf of Ukraine, has been given the best possible position in the running order of the final. Mae Muller – an artist selected by the BBC in a behind-closed-doors process – will perform ‘I Wrote a Song’ 26th and last of the countries in contention at the final on May 13th.
What is often referred to as “the pimp seat” has not seen bookmakers’ inundated with bets. On the contrary, the host country has drifted alarmingly in the betting. 6/1 at the turn of the year and 16/1 in February before the unveiling of the UK’s representative (on March 9th), it is now 40/1 that Mae Muller will sing her way to glory.
Will Sweden Be Buried in Favorites Graveyard?
Only five countries are currently trading below 20/1. Sweden, seeking to join Ireland as a seven-time Eurovision winner, is the overwhelming betting favorite. Will the country justify its odds-on price? Before Ukraine scored in 2022, the contest had been labeled a “favorites graveyard”. Read our overview on what the Eurovision betting favorites bring to the table in this ever-popular big field contest.
Spain’s Curry House Hit Is 20/1
Spain is a ‘Big Five’ country meaning it will be fast-tracked to the final – alongside France, Germany, Italy, and the UK. Ever present since its debut in 1961, the nation has won the contest twice – in 1968 and 1969. Since then, it has mustered two third-placed finishes in 1984 and 2022.
Blanca Paloma represents Spain in 2023. Her song, ‘Eaea’, is performed in Spanish, but the song has definite northern African undertones. Some parts are reminiscent of the track used to back scenes in Ridley Scott’s Gladiator. Others are similar to the sounds played on a loop in the Mumbai Masala curry house on a busy Saturday night!
At 1/5th the odds for positions 1-2-3-4 in betting sites each-way betting terms, some may wish to support Spain. But it is a doubtful winner, and non-English vocals remain a handicap to any country’s chances.
14/1 Norway, All Clap, and No Chorus
Many believe Norway was robbed of Eurovision victory in 2019. Its act topped the list of televoting scores, but broadcasting issues with their performance at Jury Rehearsals (performed the day before the final, where the juries cast their votes) meant this portion of their overall score was 250 points less than their public vote.
The Scandinavian nation has to be content with three victories – the latest being in 2009 – and 25 top-10 finishes from 60 appearances. The odds suggest that the top-10 record will be bettered by one in 2023, but can the country take gold?
2023’s offering, performed by Italian-born and raised 20-year-old Alessandra, is “Queen of Kings” an operatic rock song and dance track hybrid. Possessing lengthy clap-along sections, this song should do well. A sing-along chorus would make this song a confident selection. Alas, that is missing.
11/2 Ukraine Departure Can Capture the Prize
Ukraine did not win the 2022 Eurovision courtesy of an exceptional song. Its 2023 candidate will have to gain the same sympathy vote as its predecessor to prevail. Fan sites and polls indicate “Heart of Steel” by electronic duo Tvorchi is only rated as ‘average’ by Eurovision diehards.
A departure from the song and act normally sent by Ukraine to capture Eurovision – which the country did in 2004, 2016 (when protesting Russia’s invasion of Crimea) and 2022 – the staging of this song is unquestionably good. But an abrupt end to this track is a negative.
A price drift from 6/4 to 11/2 suggests online betting sites believe people will send their love and support to the population of the beleaguered and war-torn country in a way other than Eurovision televotes this spring.
Lordi Lordi, 9/2 Finland Are Back
Finland firmed up dramatically in the betting (9/2 from 40/1) following its selection of Cha Cha Cha, performed by K??rij?, as its Eurovision representative. The country needs a good result in the competition. It won the prize in 2006 but has failed to finish better than sixth in 54 other attempts.
Like its last winning song – Hard Rock Hallelujah by Lordi – 2023’s Finnish offering is loud and banging. It has obvious similarities with the 2021 Eurovision winner, Italy’s Zitti e buoni performed by M?neskin. But, bizarrely, you could also imagine Cha Cha Cha being performed at a summertime Butlins cabaret by Red Coats.
With K??rij? being on the ostentatious side of camp – always a Eurovision vote winner – there is every chance this entry could make the podium and online novelty betting sites cautious 9/2 odds suggest they believe Finland is a live each-way contender.
Odds-On Sweden Cloned and Sampled
No country takes Eurovision more seriously than Sweden. It is a statement backed by results. 26 top-five finishes – 12 since the turn of the century – means the bookies are always cautious of the country in the competition. Those choosing to oppose the Scandinavian nation will focus on the fact that it is eight years since Sweden finished in the top three.
This year, the fanatical Eurovision nation relies on its 2012 winner, Loreen, to take the title for a second time. The 39-year-old’s song, Tattoo, is sure to be supported by a stage show featuring outstanding production values – if anything, it appeared overproduced on Swedish television.
But, is it a tune that will win the hearts and votes of Europe’s juries and televoters and justify its ante-post odds? It may come up short. Juries – consisting of music industry professionals – could object to Tattoo’s opening section being little more than a sampled version of ABBA’s ‘The Winner Takes it All’ and vote accordingly.
There is no question of Loreen’s vocals being anything other than amazing. But, as Tattoo progresses into a close relative of Katy Perry’s Firework, a dance routine that mimics Kate Bush’s antics in her 1985 Running Up That Hill video adds further disappointment. Could that disappointment be reflected in fewer than anticipated votes? You can bet on it!
